© 2018 NEW MEXICO NEWS SERVICES 10-22-18
The young, educated and energetic leaving for Colorado, Texas, Arizona
By Harold Morgan
New Mexico Progress
People move from New Mexico in greater numbers than people move here. We have known this for years.
Speculation about the leavers has long centered on young families. The speculation makes sense. People trying to build a middle class life, something that includes educating the children, are poorly served by economies that are stagnant to declining.
Now we can say that the speculation is true, mostly, thanks to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, which serves northern New Mexico. The information comes in the KC Fed’s Rocky Mountain Economist newsletter, which discusses migration trends in Colorado, New Mexico and Wyoming.
Natural population growth—births minus deaths—is the part of population change responding to longer term trends. Migration—in and out of an area—shows shorter term ups and downs. A family quits a job, calls U-Haul and is gone.
People chose New Mexico in the early 1990s, the Fed said, with about 22,000 net migrants in the peak year, 1994. The flow reversed as the 2001 recession approached and reversed again throughout most of the 2000s.
“That flow has been negative (meaning more people leaving than coming) since 2012 as New Mexico’s economic recovery from the 2007 recession lagged national gains (no kidding), leading many individuals to seek employment opportunities in other states.”
Between 2010 and 2017, six (just six!) New Mexico counties count more people coming than leaving.
The Farmington metro area (San Juan County) leads all counties in the three states in the leaver category with about 9,600 departures.
Colorado is the most popular destination for people moving from New Mexico, followed by Texas and Arizona. These states are handy, prosperous and even booming. Oregon and North Carolina are the fourth and fifth place destinations.
Well, who are these guys?
The short answer: “In New Mexico, individuals age 25 to 44 and who earned between $50,000 and $100,000 accounted for a large share of outflows,” the Fed said. These are the people providing the core of our society. They are building businesses and careers, having children, buying houses and paying taxes.
New Mexico’s vaunted and clichéd claim of having more PhD degree holders per capita may still be true; I haven’t heard it recently. The per capita situation may have to do with our relatively small population of 2.1 million, i.e., fewer capitas, and institutions such as national laboratories that require PhDs. The hunch comes because people with some college or a degree, even, left the state while people who failed to finish high school came to the state. The effect lowers the state’s overall education level. The Fed notes that New Mexico has a “relatively large share of those with less than a high school degree.”
Of people who moved to New Mexico before 2010, just over 20 percent had at least a bachelor’s degree and about 20 percent lacked the high school diploma.
By scary contrast nearly all of the people moving to Colorado between 2010 and 2016 had at least finished high school and about half had that college degree or more. This is not “Colorado envy.” Just facts. It seems a virtuous circle. The Colorado jobs attract people with energy and education, especially from California, who grow in the jobs and create new companies which hire people with energy and education and on and on. New Mexico goes the other way, a vicious circle.
Interest in change simmers. Dale Armstrong’s Viante New Mexico (viantenm.org) wants to educate people. The recently announced New Mexicans for Economic Prosperity has no website, a dozen unidentified members, a single staffer recently employed in the governor’s office, and, from this columnist’s perspective, no credibility.
© 2018 NEW MEXICO NEWS SERVICES 10-8-18
Three-mile-long trains may (someday) enhance New Mexico train world
By Harold Morgan
New Mexico Progress
Here’s a challenge. Visualize three miles of anything as one single thing. It’s hard. Runners, for example, commonly cover more than three miles but are conscious only of the much smaller area that is visible. The question arises because of a recent report that railroads are thinking about running trains three miles long.
What would a three-mile-long train be, besides really, really long?
On Interstate 25 there is a rest stop north of Lemitar. North of the rest stop, a sign says, “Rest Stop Three Miles.”
This is the Walking Sands rest area at mile marker 167, which stands out among the state’s rest areas for its distinctive wood structures. A sand dune area used to be located immediately west of the area, but the dunes seem to have walked away.
Imagine a single train covering the distance from Walking Sands back to the sign. Such a train might have as many as 200 cars, many carrying two shipping containers. And locomotives at both ends. It might need five minutes to pass a given point.
Other than Rail Runner, which sports colorful paint and is visible because it takes passengers through Albuquerque and Santa Fe, railroads get little attention in the state. Our tale here omits Amtrak, which has separate issues. Do remember, though, that about 4,400 Boy Scouts ride Amtrak to Raton for their time at the Philmont Scout Ranch. Out of sight, out of mind.
Two of what are called Class I railroads cross the state: the Union Pacific Corporation (UP.com) and the BNSF Railway Company (BNSF.com). BNSF is North America’s largest freight rail network. UP is second.
Company fact sheets indicate the New Mexico impact.
UP operates 618 miles of track. One segment runs along Interstate 10 from Arizona to El Paso. The other angles from El Paso to Santa Rosa, Tucumcari and the Texas Panhandle. UP’s 485 New Mexico employees were paid $46.6 million in 2017.
The UP’s New Mexico jewel is the 2,200-acre intermodal ramp and refueling station a few miles from Santa Teresa. The $470 million facility opened in 2014. It has, UP says, become a catalyst for additional economic development, including warehouses, trucking and logistical distribution centers. The facility is 11.5 miles long (visualize that!), a mile wide, with 100 miles of rail sitting on 136,000 ties and 218,000 tons of concrete used in construction.
At this time, UP has no plans for three-mile-long trains, Jeff DeGraff, UP director of corporate relations and media, said in an email.
BNSF paid its 1,389 New Mexico employees $119.7 million in 2017. The company owns 1,125 route miles of track and has trackage rights for another 515 miles. That track runs along I-40 in the western third of the state and then drops south to go through Belen and along U.S. 60 to Clovis. BNSF also runs along I-25 from El Paso to Raton, skipping Santa Fe for a digression through Lamy.
BNSF has rail yards in Albuquerque, Belen, Gallup and Clovis.
Interstate 40 in the Grants-Gallup area offers continuous wonderful trains viewing. The road is above the track. The route is busy with 92 trains per day, BNSF said, that average 8,000 feet long. BNSF has tested longer trains on the route.
Train viewing will gain with the (planned) 2019 reopening of the 40-room La Castañeda hotel, just off the tracks in Las Vegas. The 1,400-acre Central New Mexico Rail Park, now under construction in Los Lunas, is another addition to our rail world anticipated for 2019.
Trains are glorious. They also move much stuff—coal, grain, lumber, cars, asphalt and steel—and provide New Mexicans jobs and a way of life.